Embraer has published the Market Outlook 2026, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial jet aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The report was released in advance of the Farnborough Air Show next week.
Market Outlook 2026 estimates 8,500 orders valued at USD 650 billion for new jets through 2045. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. The document also analyzes the standard body (< 40t) cargo segment.
In the report’s introduction, Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, notes that a realignment of how people, capital and goods move around the globe will impact future flows of airline passengers.
“The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres.” He also cites how a shift in consumer preferences, particularly in tourism, is driving a need for greater airline network connectivity to smaller markets with sub-150-seat aircraft.
Highlights of the 20-year commercial market outlook – By the numbers
World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.7% annually through 2045. China will lead among seven global regions.
According to the forecast, China is expected to record the highest annual Regional Passenger Kilometre (RPK) growth rate at 5.2%, followed by the Middle East (4.6%), Africa (4.4%), Latin America & the Caribbean (4.3%), Asia Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%) and North America (2.0%). By 2045, Asia Pacific and China together are projected to account for 40% of global RPK, while Europe and North America will represent 37%. Global demand for new jets with up to 150 seats is forecast at 8,500 aircraft, representing a market valued at approximately USD 650 billion. Of these deliveries, 31% (2,670 aircraft) are expected to go to North America, 22% (1,870) to Europe/CIS, 17% (1,470) to China, 13% (1,050) to Asia Pacific, 9% (740) to Latin America, and 4% each to Africa (370 aircraft) and the Middle East (330 aircraft).
